POINTS PERMUTATIONS: When is the earliest Norris could claim the World Championship?

After retaking the lead of the Drivers’ Championship with his commanding victory in Mexico, Lando Norris bolstered his position at the top of the leaderboard thanks to a hugely successful Sao Paulo Grand Prix weekend, in which he triumphed in the Sprint as well as Sunday’s race.

Norris’ tally now stands at 390, giving him an advantage of 24 points over McLaren team mate Oscar Piastri – who he has also matched in terms of victories in 2025, both having claimed seven Grand Prix wins apiece – while Red Bull’s Max Verstappen is 49 points adrift in third.

All three drivers remain mathematically in contention for the crown – but when is the earliest that leader Norris could potentially win a maiden World Championship? We have listed the key numbers and scenarios below…

How many points are still up for grabs?

The maximum points score available across the remaining three race weekends is 83 points, a total that a driver would achieve by taking victory at every Grand Prix as well as the final Sprint of the season in Qatar.

Can Norris win the World Championship in Las Vegas?

In a word – no. If Norris were to win the Las Vegas Grand Prix and Piastri did not score, the gap would stand at 49 points, meaning that this would not be enough to give Norris the title (given that 58 points will still be available after Vegas).

With this scenario, the best finish for Verstappen in Vegas would be second place, an outcome that would boost his points to 359 – but this would still leave him seven points behind Piastri.

When is the earliest that Norris could claim the World Championship?

That would be the Qatar Sprint. If the above situation played out, Norris would need to outscore Piastri by only two points in the 100-kilometre dash to guarantee the title. This would require the Briton to cross the line in at least seventh place.

Even if Verstappen won the Sprint in this scenario, his new points total of 367 points would put him 50 points adrift of Norris.

As such, if Norris failed to finish the final two Grands Prix and Verstappen won both, they would end the season equal on points – but Norris’ win tally of eight in comparison to Verstappen’s seven would result in the former taking the championship.

What other scenarios could help Piastri or Verstappen to win the World Championship?

If Verstappen were to win in Las Vegas – with Norris second and Piastri not scoring – this would give Norris a 42-point gap over both of his championship rivals.

Even if the British driver then went on to claim victory in the Qatar Sprint with both Piastri and Verstappen failing to score, his subsequent 50-point advantage would not be enough for him to take the Drivers’ Championship on the day.

This is because this scenario would put Norris’ wins tally at seven, Piastri’s at seven and Verstappen’s at six, meaning that if Norris did not take any points in the Qatar or Abu Dhabi Grands Prix and either Piastri or Verstappen won those races, whoever was victorious in those final two events would become World Champion.

Additionally, in a scenario where Norris finishes third or lower in Las Vegas, Piastri does not score and Verstappen crosses the line in any position, Norris would still not be able to clinch the title in the Qatar Sprint as the maximum points gap before the Saturday race would be 39 points, which could potentially rise to 47 afterwards if Piastri or Verstappen did not score and Norris won, meaning that the championship fight would roll over to the Qatar Grand Prix, either way.

So, what's the TL:DR?

In short, there is no mathematical way Norris can win the title in Las Vegas. As things stand, the earliest he could wrap it up would be in the Qatar Sprint.